National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) updated its forecast for the ongoing 2023 Atlantic hurricane season (June 1 through November). Scientists at the agency’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, upgraded their assessment from near-normal activity level to above-normal on August 10, 2023.
The 2023 outlook covers the six-month Atlantic hurricane season ending on November 20, calling for 14-21 named storms, designated when winds reach 39 mph (60 kph). According to the NOAA, scientists provide the following forecast with 70% confidence. Furthermore, this information includes storms that have already formed this season.
- Of these storms, 6-11 could become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph (119 kph) or greater.
- Two to five of those storms could become major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph (179 kph) or greater.
Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s lead hurricane season outlook forecaster, explained that the chances of a hurricane hitting the East Coast doubles during active years compared to average or below average seasons.
So far this year, the Atlantic has already had five named storms: the unnamed storm (January 16-17) affected New England and Atlantic Canada. Arlene (June 1-3) impacted Florida.
Between June 19 and 25, Bret affected the Windward Islands, Leeewars Antilles, Northern Venezuela, and Northeastern Colombia. Tropical Storm Cindy (June 22-26) joined Bret. According to The Washington Post, this was the first time on record that two named storms formed in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Finally, Don, the season’s first hurricane (July 18 to 24), did not directly impact landfall before dissipating.
More Atlantic Hurricane Season Information
Rosencrans explained several aspects that prompted the updated forecast. He said, “The main climate factors expected to influence the 2023 Atlantic hurricane activity are the ongoing El Nino and the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO), including record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures.”
According to Climate Data Guide, AMO “is based upon the average anomalies of seas surface temperatures (SST) in the North Atlantic basin” over an estimated 60 to 80 years.
“Considering those factors, the updated outlook calls for more activity, so we can urge everyone to prepare now for the continuing season,” Rosencrans continued.
Finally, “a below-normal wind shear forecast, slightly below-normal Atlantic trade winds, and a near-or-above-normal Western African Monsoon were also key factors in shaping this updated seasonal forecast.”
Written by Cathy Milne-Ware
Sources:
NPR: Atlantic hurricane season is now predicted to be ‘above-normal’ this year, NOAA says; By Jeff Brady and Rebecca Hersher
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: NOAA forecasters increase Atlantic hurricane season prediction to ‘above normal’
CNN: 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Fast Facts
NCAR: Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO); By Dr. Kevin Ternberth, Dr. Rong Zhang, and NCAR for Atmospheric Research Staff
Featured, Top, and First Inset Images Courtesy of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration – Public Domain License
Second Inset Image by Jeff Cutler Courtesy of Flickr – Creative Commons License
